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2026 年中期选举:本周晚上的《约翰·奥利弗之夜》(HBO 频道)2026/11/3

2026-11-03 12:36 · 时长 25分18秒 · 模型 deepseek-flash · 在 B 站打开 ↗
#美国中期选举 #政治讽刺 #共和党选情

2026 年中期选举:本周晚上的《约翰·奥利弗之夜》(HBO 频道)2026/11/3

一句话概括:本期节目以讽刺视角分析 2026 年美国中期选举前两天的选情,指出共和党在特朗普支持率下滑、生活成本上升和西语裔选民流失等压力下选情告急,并梳理共和党试图通过“切割特朗普”、诉讼、巨额外部资金和选举否认来挽回局面的种种手段。

要点

  • 选情总体判断:中期选举仅剩两天,共和党预计将失去众议院多数地位,参议院也可能失守。但节目提醒民调可能出错,并举例上次大选前爱荷华州民调曾显示哈里斯领先,最终却未赢下该州。

  • 特朗普的拉票表现:特朗普在中期选举集会上让支持者宣誓投票,并称“不投票就会下地狱”;他还反复告诉选民“假装我在选票上”,但其支持率已大幅下滑。爱荷华州集市一位女性选民表示,以前到处能看到“Trump”标语,现在几乎看不到了。

  • 选民对关税的不满:有选民对特朗普反复无常的关税政策表达 frustration,认为关税“尚未奏效”,只是希望未来能起作用。

  • 生活成本与汽油价格:特朗普的关税、全国范围内的 ICE 突袭以及伊朗战争,被认为推高了生活成本,汽油价格同比上涨 34%。节目指出,可负担性是许多选民投票的重要考量,并讽刺称当前政治困境“主要是种族主义,但部分原因是鸡蛋价格”。

  • 共和党候选人试图与特朗普保持距离:一项分析发现,超过 99% 的 GOP 广告支出流向了不提及特朗普的广告。密歇根州参议员候选人 Mike Rogers 在被问“投给你是否等于支持特朗普议程”时,以“耳机有问题”为由回避问题。

  • 个别共和党人公开批评特朗普政策:佛罗里达州众议员 Maria Elvira Salazar 发布广告称,特朗普的部分移民执法“走得太远”,并称 2024 年支持特朗普的西语裔选民如今感到“被背叛”。节目提到,她在一年前还曾参观“Alligator Alcatraz”并称笼子“很干净”。

  • 西语裔选民倾向变化:在可能投票的西语裔选民中,民主党在国会选票上近期领先共和党 35 个百分点,而上次总统选举中仅领先 7 个百分点。原因包括移民执法争议、生活成本压力,以及白宫官方推特发布戴墨西哥草帽的南瓜灯图片等种族争议。

  • 特朗普初选背书反噬:特朗普在初选中反复支持极端 MAGA 候选人,例如纽约州第 21 选区的 Anthony Constantino——一家贴纸公司 CEO,因在工厂挂巨大特朗普标志而受关注。他是“支持特朗普的说唱歌手”,曾发视频攻击 Zohran Mamdani,歌词中把“New York”与“New York”押韵。

  • Constantino 的能力质疑:被问“强制性支出与可自由裁量支出有何区别”时,他回答“强制就是强制,可自由裁量就是可自由裁量”;被追问含义时称“你告诉我”。被要求说出其选区最大城市时,他说“我不知道,问 Grok”。

  • 共和党的应对策略之一:诉讼:DOJ 发起多项缺乏依据的诉讼,试图夺取州选民名册,目前在法庭上 0 胜 27 负;还预先质疑加州和阿拉斯加的选举诚信。阿拉斯加案例中,民主党被指安插另一位“Dan Sullivan”混淆选票,但现任参议员在选票上明确标注“incumbent”,且该州采用排序选择投票,选民并不困惑。特朗普称“很多人不知道 incumbent 是什么意思”,被节目讽刺为“不打自招”。

  • 选举否认的铺垫:特朗普重返白宫后,超过 70% 的日子都在攻击选举公正性。被问是否会接受中期选举结果时,他说“如果选举是诚实的,我会接受”。DHS 曾声称调查 30 万起潜在选民欺诈,但实际仅提起 208 起指控。

  • 外部资金悬殊:虽然民主党竞选团队筹款超过共和党,但在外部支出上差距巨大:本次选举周期 40 位最大金主给共和党的资金是给民主党的三倍多,仅 Elon Musk 一人就至少向共和党投入 4.83 亿美元,用于大量广告投放。

▸ 原始转写文字稿(14879 字符)
But we're actually going to dive straight in with our main story this week, which involves the midterm elections. They're just two days away, and last minute rallies are being held all over the country, with perhaps the saddest being Ken Paxton's on Thursday night, which began with this rousing speech. Um, we're probably about an hour out. Do me a favour, please don't leave. And the reason why that is, because I don't want the media to turn it in saying that people don't like Ken Paxton. Well, it's not our fault that we have jobs we've got to do in the morning. I'm sorry. Sure, but if you actually like the person you're seeing, you don't worry about work in the morning, do you? You don't leave a Springsteen concert at 8.30 saying, Well, I was really hoping I'd see him do Born to Run, but it's a work night. No! You drink two more beers and get your joints loose for Rosalita like a fucking adult! Overall, things don't seem to be looking great for Republicans right now, as they're on track to lose the majority in the House and possibly the Senate too. And look, before anyone gets carried away, Polls can clearly be wrong. You may remember that Iowa poll right before the last election showing Kamala Harris winning the state, which, spoiler alert, she didn't. As we now know, Iowa was instead carried by Corn Tar, Lord of the Storks, who rose from the fields at the 11th hour to claim his dark harvest. That said, there have been signs for months now the Republicans foresee some trouble. In fact, at Trump's ridiculous midterm convention, he even led the crowd in this desperate pledge. I pledge to the greatest president in the history of the United States that loves us so much he can't even breathe. Trump, making the crowd, pledged to him that they would vote come November. You know what happens if you don't vote? You go to hell. You know that. Okay, there is so much there from asking people to repeat back a sentence clearly too long for them to the line, loves us so much he can't even breathe. What in the Paramore lyrics is he even talking about there? As for vote or you'll go to hell, I'll say this, huge if true. Imagine if Jeffrey Epstein got to hell and said, oh, because of all the stuff, and the devil said, no, actually, lack of civic engagement. In the last month, Trump's been criss-crossing the country to try and drum up support among his base, even repeatedly telling his voters to pretend I'm on the ballot, which is a bold move given the extent to which his approval rating has completely tanked. In fact, just listen to this woman at the Iowa State Fair explain how she's seen support for him, Ebba Way, before the reporter makes her big choice to wrap up the piece. It used to be, no matter where you drove, they did it on the corn bales or the hay bales, everything. Trump, Trump, Trump. Every place you went. Because we are Republican, where we're from. You don't see any now. You don't see any of them. And Alex, I'll keep this quick because I'm starting to get dizzy, but we've also heard expressions of frustration about President's up-and-down tariff policy. And even President Trump's most ardent supporters will say that the tariffs aren't working yet. They're just hoping that they will work down the line. That's what we're hearing from voters here at the Iowa State Fair. Wow! He shot that as if he expected viewers to respond to him saying, we're here at the Iowa State Fair with really fucking prove it. And in hindsight, I'm pretty sure the entire time he was talking to that woman, he was just staring at the cotton candy sign behind her. Just, yeah, that sounds really tough for what you're going through. Quick question. Is there an age limit on the rides here? Because next thing you know, he's on a horsey looking like a child of divorce getting spoiled on Dad Weekend. But that fancy child reporter is right. Trump's tariffs do seem to have hurt him, as have ice raids all over the country, and his war in Iran, which has contributed to gas prices being up 34% from a year ago. And I know it feels very weird to boil two years of violent chaos down to gas prices go up, but affordability is something many people do vote on. I will remind you, part of the reason we're in this mess right now is because of the price of fucking eggs. It was mostly racism, but it was partly eggs. The point is, if Tuesday's midterms do turn out to be a referendum on this president, it's not looking great for him. Tonight, we thought we'd take a look at the midterms, the problems they've laid bare for Republicans, and some of the ways that they're desperately trying to solve them. And let's start with the fact that some Republican candidates have notably been trying to distance themselves from Trump. One analysis found that more than 99% of GOP ad spending is now going to spots that do not mention him. In fact, just watch this Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers when he tries to dodge being connected to Trump in an interview last Sunday. Is a vote for you a vote for the Trump agenda? I'm apologizing. I'm having some difficulty in my earpiece, but is a vote for you... I'm not sure. I'll tell you what a vote for me is. It's a great day for the state of Michigan. Yeah, nice try, Mike. But that was pretty obvious. I haven't seen someone dodge a question that shamelessly since I've spent three hours gasping aloud at two complete lunatics who've never blinked once in their lives. If you want to talk about that movie, please contact anyone who works here. It's derailed our workflow to an unacceptable degree. Meanwhile, other Republicans have felt the need to actively criticize Trump's policies, like Florida Congressman Maria Elvira Salazar, who released this ad. Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policies. The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today. Okay, first, saying some of Trump's immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far is like saying some Nick Cage performances are a scooch unhinged. You're technically right, of course, but you're not really capturing the true scope of what we're talking about. But also, that is a notable shift, given just a year ago Salazar toured Alligator Alcatraz and reassured reporters that no-one likes to be inside a cage, but I want to tell you that the cages were clean, which is pretty fucked up, in the same way it'd be fucked up to say, hey, nobody likes being waterboarded, but I want to tell you it's all natural spring water there. they're getting. But she's not wrong that Hispanic voters do seem to feel betrayed, as among likely voters in that demo, Democrats recently led Republicans by 35 points on the congressional ballot. That's up from a lead of just seven points in the last presidential election, which shouldn't be surprising, because it's not just anger over immigration enforcement. Hispanic voters are also experiencing the same affordability concerns as everyone else, as well as having to endure relentless racism from the White House. Just this week, its official Twitter account posted, spooky season is here, with an image of a jack-o'-lantern with a sombrero on it, which is both racist and ridiculous, as the sombrero is just objectively one of the least scary hats. Witches hat, top hat, sure, both creepy, but if you're walking alone in the woods, someone comes around the corner and all you can make out is their sombrero? Brother, something festive this way comes. In fact, slap a sombrero on the Babadook and see how people's reactions to him change. But some Republican candidates can't really distance themselves from Trump, as he's the one who got them on the ballot in the first place. During the primaries, he repeatedly endorsed extreme MAGA types. We've talked before about Senate candidates like Mike Collins in Georgia and Ken Paxton in Texas, but he also thumbed the scale in house races like in upstate New York, where the Republican establishment backed this more traditional candidate, but Trump endorsed Anthony Constantino, the CEO of a sticker company who first gained attention by putting a giant Trump sign on his factory, something you can see in this photo, taken by someone who just hates him. Constantino is running in a deep red district, but his race now seems up for grabs. And when you learn more about him, you can start to see why. For starters, he is a pro-Trump rapper, apparently, which is exactly as bad as you would expect. Just watch this video that he put out last year attacking Zoran Mamdani. Hamilton was a mistake. And yes, you heard right, he did just rhyme New York with New York there. Which is frustrating, given there were so many other options open to him, like fork, stalk, or turning the camera off, packing up his recording equipment and never rapping again. Trump pushed hard for Constantino, despite the fact he doesn't seem remotely ready for the job. He was recently asked if he knew the difference between mandatory and discretionary spending, and said, mandatory means mandatory, and discretionary means discretionary. And when the reporter responded, well, right, but what do those terms actually mean? He replied, you tell me. And that's not even his worst answer, as when he was asked to simply name the biggest city in his district, he said, and I quote, I don't know, ask Grock, which we actually did. and it said, the biggest city in New York's 21st district is a big-titted Lola Bunny telling us to kill ourselves. It's a very useful tool. The point is, Republicans seem to be facing some significant headwinds, and at this point, it's worth looking at how they're trying to overcome them, because it's mostly been litigation, billionaire spending, and rank bigotry. And let's talk about the litigation first, because the DOJ's launched a bunch of baseless lawsuits to try and seize states' voter rolls, on which they're currently 0 for 27 in court. They've also been preemptively challenging the integrity of votes in California and Alaska, with the latter suit really ramping up this week, following reports that Democrats there had carried out an admittedly pretty dickish manoeuvre to sow confusion on the ballot. Tonight, a new headline rocking the Senate race in deep red Alaska. Two Dan Sullivan's, the people aren't going to be able to tell, and it's a fraud. The New York Times reporting on a secret Democratic plot to sabotage the campaign of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by placing another candidate with the same name on the ballot to confuse his supporters. Last week, President Trump told the DOJ to file suit to block certification of Alaska's results if Dan J. Sullivan cost Senator Sullivan a win. Yeah, Democrats allegedly tried to confuse voters by getting another Dan Sullivan to run, which again confirms my theory that when you hear secret Republican plot, it's always some sort of elaborate house of cards chicanery. But when you hear secret Democratic plot, it is the most rinky-dink, Scooby-Doo, clown car, mix-em-up imaginable. Now, both the Democratic candidates campaign and the party Senate campaign committee have denied that report, but it wouldn't be the first time that tactic's been used. In fact, it's been called an age-old election trick, and has happened up and down ballots across party lines. It's also, crucially, not illegal. That'd only be the case if it involved things like falsifying residency documents, laundering campaign funds, or offering direct payments. In fact, as one expert put it, if trying to confuse voters was a crime, then every politician would be in jail. What's more, as you can see from the ballots, that Dan Sullivan, who's the incumbent Republican Senator, is clearly marked incumbent. And while Trump has argued that a lot of people don't know what incumbent means, which does feel like he's really telling on himself there, when CNN talked to voters in Alaska, they didn't seem that confused. Can you tell who's who here? Oh, absolutely. Yeah. You've got Daniel Jake Sullivan Jr., and then you have Sullivan Dan, who's a registered Republican and incumbent. And I don't even have my glasses on. It's pretty clear. It's in black and white. It's very clear. Yeah, and for what it's worth, the sickest possible burn from someone with any amount of gray in their hair is, I don't even have my glasses on. If I don't have my glasses on and even I can tell that something is clear, bitch, you are cooked. And on top of that, Alaska actually uses ranked choice voting, so any theoretical person who doesn't know what incumbent means and wants to make sure their vote's going to Senator Dan Sullivan can just rank both of them on the ballot. And again, none of that makes what Democrats are being accused of good or okay, but it does make it stupid and meaningless, which if nothing else would be pretty on brand for the party. And yet, if Sullivan loses, it seems inevitable Trump will try to prevent his opponent from being seated in the Senate, despite there being no legal basis for that. And that's just one of many ways Trump and his administration have tried to sow fear and doubt ahead of this election, from the ice raid of Ilan Omar's home three weeks ago to his bullshit primetime address on supposed voter fraud in July. After that, DHS claimed that they were looking into 300,000 possible instances of fraud and sank huge resources into bringing cases. But when we asked them exactly how many they've brought this term, not even convicted, just charged, they told us it was just 208, which is, you'll notice, slightly under 300,000. I can even tell that without my fucking glasses on. And all of this is clearly laying the groundwork for election denial. By one analysis, Trump's attacked the integrity of elections on more than 70% of the days since he returned to office. And just this week, when asked if he'd commit to accepting the midterm results, he said this. And you'll respect the results whatever happens? I will if they're on a selection. Yeah, and that's a pretty big disclaimer, isn't it? It basically seems that Trump's principles are essentially, if you don't vote, you go to hell. And if I don't win, the whole thing can go to hell. So that is how Republicans are trying to litigate their way out of trouble. But they're also trying to spend their way out of it. Because while Democratic campaigns have actually outraised Republican ones, when it comes to outside spending, it's not cloaks. The 40 biggest donors this election cycle have given Republicans more than three times the amount that they've given Democrats, with Elon Musk alone giving Republicans at least $483 million so far. And that money's bought a lot of advertising. And that money's bought a lot of advertising. And that money's bought a lot of advertising.